The medical journal The Lancet has recently released a study titled Forecasting life expectancy, years of life lost, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 250 causes of death, which studied life expectancy, all-cause mortality and causes of death forecasts from the year 2016-2040 across 195 countries. The researchers modelled 250 causes and cause groups by the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study to generate predictions for human life expectancy till the year 2040.
According to the findings of the study, most health parameters or drivers of heath will improve by 2040, but 36 will worsen. These include high body mass index or BMI, which may worsen if sufficient measures are not taken to correct them. Global life expectancy may increase by 4.4 years for men and women by 2040. But if measures are taken to improve the health drivers, lifespans of people may increase by 7.8 years and 7.2 years for women. And if no improvement is made, it could cause a “non-significant” loss of 0.4 years for men and 0.1 years for women. Human Lifespan: Chances of Living Longer Increase After You Are 105 Years Old, Says New Study.
Among the countries who will do well include, Japan, Singapore, Spain and Switzerland. In these countries, the lifespans may exceed 85 years. In contrast to this, Central Africa Republic, Lesotho, Somalia and Zimbabwe had projected lifespans of lesser than 65 years.
The study showed a rising toll from severe non-communicable diseases, worsened partly by population growth and ageing. Even more worryingly, HIV/AIDS may have a potential increase of 120.2 percent from 2016-2040.
On a country level, 59 countries will either meet or exceed life expectancy level of 80 years. These countries not only include the developed, high-income nations like Japan, US and UK, it also includes Latin American countries like Cuba, Peru, Colombia and Chile; southeast Asian countries like Thailand and Sri Lanka; and China. Here's the list of the top ten countries:
1 Spain - 85.8 years
2 Japan - 85.7 years
3 Singapore - 85.4 years
4 Switzerland - 85.2 years
5 Portugal - 84.5 years
6 Italy - 84.5 years
7 Israel - 84.4 years
8 France - 84.3 years
9 Luxembourg - 84.1 years
10 Australia - 84.1 years
The study data also showed that China will do better than the US by surpassing the 80-year mark by 2040. People in Russia, Kazakhstan and other central Asian countries may have life expectancies between ages of 75 and 80.
Indians and Pakistanis fare equally, according to the study. Life expectancies in both countries were just below 75 in 2040.
That being said, the researchers added that there’s “great potential to alter the downward trajectory of health.” This can be done by addressing various risk factors such as lifestyle, awareness and per capita income.