The Pakistanย national cricket team are on the verge of exiting the ICC Menโ€™s T20 World Cup 2026 today, Friday, 27 February. Their fate in Group 2 is no longer in their own hands, and a victory for New Zealand against England tonight would officially confirm Pakistan's elimination from the tournament. Following a rain-abandoned opener and a narrow two-wicket defeat to England earlier this week, Salman Ali Aghaโ€™s side currently sits in third place with just one point.

While England have already secured their place in the semi-finals, the second qualification spot from Group 2 remains a contested battle between the Black Caps and Pakistan.ย India Semi-Final Scenario After Win Against Zimbabwe in T20 World Cup 2026 Super 8 Match.

Group 2 Semi-Final Scenarios

The mathematics for Pakistan are unforgiving. New Zealand currently have three points following their dominant 61-run victory over Sri Lanka on Wednesday.

  • If New Zealand win tonight: They will reach five points, a total Pakistan cannot match even with a victory in their final game.

  • If the match is a No Result (Rain): New Zealand would move to four points. Since Pakistan can only reach a maximum of three points, they would still be eliminated.

  • If England win tonight: Pakistan remains mathematically alive. They would then need to defeat Sri Lanka convincingly on 28 February and hope that Englandโ€™s winning margin was large enough to allow Pakistan to overtake New Zealand on Net Run Rate (NRR).ย Most Runs in T20 World Cup 2026: Check Updated List.

T20 World Cup 2026 Super 8 Group 2ย Points Tableย (Before ENG vs NZ)

Rank Team Played Won NR Points Net Run Rate (NRR)
1 England (Q) 2 2 0 4 +1.491
2 New Zealand 2 1 1 3 +3.050
3 Pakistan 2 0 1 1 -0.461
4 Sri Lanka (E) 2 0 0 0 -2.800

Net Run Rate: The Formidable Barrier

Even if England defeat New Zealand tonight, Pakistan faces a daunting task. New Zealandโ€™s NRR stands at a formidable +3.050, largely due to their clinical bowling performance against Sri Lanka. Pakistanโ€™s rate is currently -0.461.

For Pakistan to qualify in the event of an England win, they would likely need a "double-swing": a heavy New Zealand defeat tonight followed by a record-breaking victory for Pakistan against Sri Lanka tomorrow. Without a significant shift in these numbers, New Zealand remain the clear favourites to join England in the final four.

(The above story first appeared on LatestLY on Feb 27, 2026 06:46 AM IST. For more news and updates on politics, world, sports, entertainment and lifestyle, log on to our website latestly.com).