World News | Early Election Takeaways: It's Called History for a Reason
Get latest articles and stories on World at LatestLY. American elections occasionally provide a moment of national unity. This is not one of them.
Washington, Nov 9 (AP) American elections occasionally provide a moment of national unity. This is not one of them.
The 2022 midterms, deciding the balance of power in Congress, have been bitter, fractious and expensive in the billions. Even the very notion of democracy and the civil ritual of voting were under attack.
President Joe Biden, presiding over narrow Democratic control of Washington, has seen his approval ratings buffeted by soaring inflation, fears about crime and lingering effects of the pandemic.
Republicans, meanwhile, have had to deal with a rift between the party's establishment wing and President Donald Trump.
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Here are some takeaway from this year's election:
HISTORY LESSON
It's called history for a reason. The party that celebrates winning the White House is usually mourning a loss in the midterms two years later.
Add to that historical pattern an economy battered by inflation and teetering on recession, throw in fears about crime, and the outcome is almost assured.
For Biden and House Democrats, the likelihood of keeping power in the lower chamber of Congress was always slight. Republicans have expected to gain enough seats to retake the majority. If successful, they also have plans to neuter Biden's agenda for the next two years.
Since 1906, there have been only three midterms in which the party of the president in power gained House seats: 1934, when the country was struggling with a Depression, 1998 when the US was buoyed by a soaring economy, and 2002, when President George W. Bush had a sky-high approval rating amid the national feeling of unity after the September 11 attacks.
IS FLORIDA STILL A SWING STATE?
Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Marco Rubio, both Republicans, offer the latest evidence that Florida is becoming increasingly red. The two soared to early reelection victories on Tuesday, both winning Miami-Dade County, which Democrat Hillary Clinton carried by 29 percentage points in 2016.
Florida has been a classic battleground. It twice helped propel Barack Obama to the White House. But the state, where the number of registered Democrats exceeded Republicans in 2020, has shifted increasingly to the right.
That's thanks to GOP inroads with Hispanic voters, as well as an influx of new residents, including many retirees, drawn to its lack of an income tax as well as its sunny weather.
"Democrats really have to think about how they are going to rebuild there. The Obama coalition no longer exists," said Carlos Curbelo, a Republican former member of Congress, who called Florida ”off the map for the foreseeable future”.
DeSantis won the governor's office in 2018 by only about 30,000 votes. On Tuesday, he flipped at least six counties that he lost that year. Those same counties were carried by Biden just two years ago.
Some Democrats blame some of Tuesday's blowout losses to a lack of investment by their party.
"This is what happen when national Democrats decide to not spend money in the state,” said Greg Goddard, a Democratic fundraising consultant from Florida who raised money for Rep. Val Demings' losing challenge of Rubio.
“The pathway to Democrats winning future presidential elections is very thin if you do not plan to spend in Florida
BUT THE RED WAVE JUST GOT SHORTER
Just how far a red wave will carry Republicans won't likely be known for weeks as states that conduct their elections largely by mail, such a California, continue counting votes.
One thing is certain: It's unlikely to match 2010's tea party wave, which netted 63 seats, or the Newt Gingrich-led House takeover of 1994, which ousted 54 Democrats and flipped the chamber to GOP control for the first time since the presidency of Dwight Eisenhower.
The reason those won't happen? There just aren't that many competitive seats.
In recent decades, congressional districts have been redrawn to shore up incumbents and solidify party power.
Under the most recent maps adopted following the 2020 census, there are just 30 seats that Biden won by less than 8 percentage points and 30 seats Trump won by less than 8 points, according to the Brennan Centre for Justice. That's a 14 percent drop in competitive seats from 2018.
The end result? Far less interest in compromise and more gridlock in the halls of Congress.
WHAT DO REPUBLICANS WANT?
Gingrich's “Contract with America” was celebrated as a cornerstone of the Republicans' 1994 House takeover for offering a concrete list of policies the GOP would pursue if put in power.
Now Republicans are far more circumspect about their aims.
“That's a very good question. And I'll let you know when we take it back,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell he told reporters in January.
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy has offered up a “Commitment to America”, a list of priorities that fits on a pocket-sized card he carries with him that is heavy on slogans and light on detail.
Both may be attempting to avoid the plight of Gingrich whose “Contract with America” became a liability when Republicans failed to enact it.
House Republicans have said they intend to investigate Biden and his administration. They have also called for a renewed focus on fiscal restraint, a crackdown on illegal immigration at the southern border and increased domestic energy production.
Much of it may not matter. Biden, after all, has a veto pen.
MOST EXPENSIVE MIDTERMS
The 2022 elections are on track to cost USD 16.7 billion at the state and federal level, making them the most expensive midterms ever, according to the nonpartisan OpenSecrets.
For perspective: The contests will nearly double the cost of the 2010 midterm elections, more than double the 2014 midterms and are on pace to roughly equal the 2022 gross domestic product of Mongolia.
At least USD 1.1 billion given at the federal level so far this election season has come from a small coterie of donors, many of whom have favoured conservative causes.
“When you look at the top 25 individual donors, conservative donors heavily outweigh liberal donors by USD 200 million,” said Brendan Glavin, a senior data analyst for OpenSecrets. “There's a big skew.”
Tech billionaire Peter Thiel (USD 32.6 million), shipping goods magnate Richard Uihlein (USD 80.7 million), hedge fund manager Ken Griffin (USD 68.5 million) and Timothy Mellon, an heir to to a Gilded Age Fortune who gave USD 40 million, are among the top conservative donors.
On the liberal side, hedge fund founder George Soros gave the most (USD 128 million), though much of it has yet to be spent. Sam Bankman Fried, a liberal 30-year-old cryptocurrency billionaire, gave USD 39.8 million. (AP)
(The above story is verified and authored by Press Trust of India (PTI) staff. PTI, India’s premier news agency, employs more than 400 journalists and 500 stringers to cover almost every district and small town in India.. The views appearing in the above post do not reflect the opinions of LatestLY)