Turkey vs United States, FIFA World Cup 2026 Win Probability: What Polymarket Betting Prediction Markets Say

The FIFA World Cup 2026 Group D concludes with a fascinating encounter between Turkey and co-hosts United States. Scheduled for Friday, June 26, at 7:30 AM IST, this match at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, carries differing stakes for the two nations. The United States Men's National Team (USMNT) has already secured its passage to the Round of 32 and topped Group D, while Turkey finds itself eliminated after two group stage losses. FIFA Approves 48-Team Expansion for 2029 Club World Cup, To Include More PL Clubs.

Polymarket Predicts USMNT Victory

Prediction markets on Polymarket strongly lean towards a United States victory in this Group D fixture. Crowd sentiment indicates a significant advantage for the Stars and Stripes, reflecting their dominant performance in the tournament so far. The implied probabilities suggest a clear favourite:

• United States Win: 51%
• Turkey Win: 26%
• Draw: 23%

This market sentiment underscores the USMNT's strong run and Turkey's challenging campaign.

United States' Dominant Run

As one of the tournament's co-hosts, the United States has made an impressive start to their World Cup journey. They decisively won their opening two Group D matches, defeating Paraguay 4-1 and Australia 2-0, showcasing a potent attack and solid defence. Having already secured their spot in the knockout stages and topping Group D, coach Mauricio Pochettino may opt to rotate his squad, providing valuable rest for key players and protecting others from potential yellow card suspensions ahead of the Round of 32. Players like Folarin Balogun and Christian Pulisic have been central to their success, and the depth of the squad is expected to be tested. Neymar Joins Legendary Pele in Elite FIFA World Cup List For Brazil After Appearance Against Scotland in WC 2026.

Turkey's Quest for Pride

For Turkey, this match represents a final opportunity to make their mark on the FIFA World Cup 2026. After a 24-year absence, the Crescent-Stars qualified for the tournament but have endured a tough Group D campaign, suffering consecutive defeats to Australia (2-0) and Paraguay (1-0), leading to their elimination. Despite leading the tournament in shots taken through two matches, they are yet to find the back of the net, a statistic they will be eager to rectify. Under coach Vincenzo Montella and led by captain Hakan Çalhanoğlu, with exciting young talents like Arda Güler and Kenan Yıldız, Turkey will be playing for pride and a morale-boosting result against the host nation.

While the United States aims to maintain its perfect record and momentum, Turkey will be fighting to end its World Cup campaign on a positive note. The Polymarket odds reflect the USMNT's strong position, but in football, especially on the grand stage of the World Cup, upsets are always a possibility.

(The above story first appeared on LatestLY on Jun 25, 2026 11:00 PM IST. For more news and updates on politics, world, sports, entertainment and lifestyle, log on to our website latestly.com).