RBI MPC Decision Today: Sanjay Malhotra to Announce Repo Rate Amid Inflation, Crude Oil Above USD 100

The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), headed by Governor Sanjay Malhotra, is set to announce its bi-monthly interest rate decision on Wednesday amid rising inflationary pressures, elevated crude oil prices and continuing geopolitical tensions in West Asia. The policy announcement is scheduled for 10 am, following the three-day MPC meeting that began on October 5. The decision comes at a time when g

lobal uncertainty and higher energy prices have complicated the outlook for India’s inflation and economic growth.

RBI Repo Rate Decision in Focus

The key question before the MPC is whether the RBI will raise the benchmark repo rate or maintain the existing rate of 5.25 per cent. The central bank has kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25 per cent for four consecutive policy reviews after cutting it by a cumulative 125 basis points in 2025. A rate hike would mark the first increase since February 2023, when the RBI raised the repo rate to 6.50 per cent. RBI Seen Beginning Rate-hike Cycle, Repo Rate May Reach 6% by FY27 as Inflation Risks Rise: Reports.

Why Inflation and Crude Oil Matter

The policy decision comes amid renewed inflation concerns, with crude oil prices remaining elevated because of tensions in the Middle East. Higher crude prices can increase India’s import bill and put pressure on domestic prices, making inflation management a key concern for the central bank. The MPC will also assess domestic food-price trends and broader global financial conditions.

Experts Expect 25 Basis Point Hike

A section of economists and market participants expects the RBI to increase the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50 per cent. A Reuters poll showed a divided outlook, with 35 of 61 economists expecting a 25-basis-point hike, while 26 predicted no change. Market pricing has also been pointing towards a possible 25-basis-point increase, although a larger hike remains an outside possibility.

Impact on Loans, EMIs and Savings

Any change in the repo rate could influence borrowing costs across the banking system. A hike could put upward pressure on interest rates for home, personal and vehicle loans, while potentially improving returns for depositors if banks pass on the increase. However, the immediate impact on existing borrowers will depend on the type of loan, its interest-rate structure and how individual banks adjust their lending rates. RBI May Defer Rate Hike to December, Deliver 75 Bps of Tightening This Cycle: Madan Sabnavis.

RBI to Balance Inflation and Growth

The MPC faces the challenge of controlling inflation without putting excessive pressure on economic growth. India’s growth outlook remains relatively resilient, but higher energy costs and global financial tightening have increased risks to the domestic economy.

The RBI’s policy statement and Governor Malhotra’s guidance will therefore be closely watched for signals on the future direction of interest rates and the central bank’s monetary policy stance. The RBI’s August policy review had retained the repo rate at 5.25 per cent and maintained a neutral stance, with the central bank seeking greater clarity on the inflation outlook amid geopolitical and global trade uncertainties.

(The above story first appeared on LatestLY on Oct 07, 2026 09:41 AM IST. For more news and updates on politics, world, sports, entertainment and lifestyle, log on to our website latestly.com).