World number one Aryna Sabalenka and Kazakhstan’s Elena Rybakina will meet in a highly anticipated rematch of the 2023 final this Saturday at Rod Laver Arena. Both players enter the championship match in flawless form, having reached the final without dropping a single set throughout the fortnight. Sabalenka, the top seed, is seeking her third Australian Open title in four years, while fifth seed Rybakina looks to claim her first Melbourne crown and avenge her three-set defeat from three years ago. Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Head-to-Head Ahead of Australian Open 2026 Final.

Power vs Precision: Tactical Breakdown

The final presents a clash between the two most dominant hard-court players on the WTA Tour. Sabalenka has been clinical in her path to the final, extending her winning streak at the start of 2026 to 11 matches. Her semi-final victory over Elina Svitolina (6-2, 6-3) showcased her improved emotional resilience and a formidable forehand that has averaged 129 km/h during the tournament.

Elena Rybakina, often referred to as the Ice Queen for her calm demeanour, has been equally impressive. Her route to the final included a dominant 7-5, 6-1 victory over world number two Iga Świątek in the quarter-finals and a gritty straight-sets win against Jessica Pegula in the semi-finals. Rybakina currently leads the tournament in aces (41) and will rely on her serve—widely considered the best on tour—to neutralise Sabalenka's aggressive returns.

Win Probability

The reason the probabilities favour Sabalenka slightly, despite Rybakina's recent wins over her, lies in her current form at Melbourne Park. Sabalenka's high service-win percentage and record at Rod Laver Arena (where she has reached four consecutive finals) make her the favourite.  Why is Aryna Sabalenka Competing Without Country's Flag and Anthem at Australian Open 2026?.

However, the margin is narrower than the numbers suggest. Rybakina won their most recent encounter at the 2025 WTA Finals in Riyadh (6-3, 7-6) and has won 19 of her last 20 professional matches. While Sabalenka leads the overall head-to-head 8–6, Rybakina holds a 6–5 advantage on outdoor hard courts, making this one of the most unpredictable finals in recent memory.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Match Facts

Feature Aryna Sabalenka [1] Elena Rybakina [5]
Current Ranking 1 5
AO Titles 2 (2023, 2024) 0 (Runner-up 2023)
Head-to-Head 8 wins 6 wins
Tournament Aces 28 41
Sets Dropped (AO 26) 0 0
Win Probability 62% 38%

Historical Significance

History beckons for both athletes on Saturday night. If Sabalenka triumphs, she will become just the fourth woman in the Open Era to collect five major hard-court titles, joining Serena Williams, Steffi Graf, and Monica Seles. For Rybakina, a victory would make her the first player since 2019 to defeat three top-10 opponents en route to the Australian Open title, further cementing her status as a premier big-match player.

(The above story first appeared on LatestLY on Jan 30, 2026 04:30 PM IST. For more news and updates on politics, world, sports, entertainment and lifestyle, log on to our website latestly.com).