Norway vs England, FIFA World Cup 2026 Win Probability: What Polymarket Betting Prediction Markets Say

The FIFA World Cup 2026 Quarter-Finals are set for a thrilling encounter as Norway takes on England. This highly anticipated match, scheduled for Sunday, July 12, at 2:30 AM IST (Saturday, July 11, 5:00 PM ET), will see both nations battle it out at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, with a coveted spot in the semi-finals on the line. Will Erling Haaland Play in Norway vs England FIFA World Cup 2026 Quarterfinal Match?.

Norway vs England Polymarket Predictions: England Set to Advance

According to the latest data from Polymarket, the blockchain-based prediction platform, England holds a significant advantage in the crucial Quarter-Final tie. The market suggests England has a 65% probability of advancing to the semi-finals, a figure that encompasses potential extra time and penalty shootouts. This implies Norway's probability of progressing stands at 35%. While the market for a draw in regulation time is not explicitly quantified by Polymarket in the provided data, England is given a 51% chance of securing a victory within the standard 90 minutes.

Beyond the outright winner, Polymarket also offers insights into potential match dynamics. The 'Both Teams to Score' market is trading at 61%, indicating a high likelihood of goals from both sides. Furthermore, the 'Over 2.5 goals' market aligns with Norway's tournament trend, where all five of their matches so far have seen more than 2.5 goals.

Key player markets also reflect expectations. England captain Harry Kane is priced at 49% to score, while Jude Bellingham, who has four goals in the tournament, holds a 27% chance to find the net. |Will Harry Kane Play in Norway vs England FIFA World Cup 2026 Quarterfinal Match?.

The Road to Miami: Form and Key Players

Norway arrives in Miami on the back of an historic run, marking their first-ever appearance in a FIFA World Cup Quarter-Final. Their journey has been nothing short of a Cinderella story, highlighted by a stunning 2-1 victory over five-time champions Brazil in the Round of 16, where Erling Haaland netted both goals. Haaland now leads the Golden Boot race with seven goals in five matches. Captain Martin Ødegaard has been instrumental in orchestrating play from midfield, showcasing Norway's attacking prowess.

England, meanwhile, has lived up to its billing as one of the tournament favourites. The Three Lions topped Group L and navigated two challenging knockout tests, progressing through the Round of 32 and Round of 16. They secured a 3-2 victory over co-hosts Mexico in the Round of 16, a match where Jude Bellingham scored twice. Harry Kane Confirms ‘Surreal’ Palm Beach Golf Round With US President Donald Trump.

Harry Kane, with six goals to his name, continues to be a formidable threat upfront, alongside the likes of Bellingham and Bukayo Saka. England brings more quarter-final experience to the table, making their 11th appearance at this stage, compared to Norway's debut. Historically, England has won only one of four competitive meetings against Norway.

This quarter-final clash at Hard Rock Stadium promises to be an enthralling battle. With both teams featuring potent attacking talent and significant stakes on the line, the latest Polymarket data suggests England is poised for advancement, but Norway's resilience and star power make them a dangerous underdog in this high-stakes encounter.

(The above story first appeared on LatestLY on Jul 11, 2026 09:30 PM IST. For more news and updates on politics, world, sports, entertainment and lifestyle, log on to our website latestly.com).