Monsoon 2026 Forecast and Update: IMD Predicts Below-Normal Monsoon Rainfall and Above-Normal Heatwaves in June
The IMD projects below-normal monsoon rainfall for India at 90% of the Long Period Average, with Central, Northwest, and Southern regions most affected. June will bring below-normal rain alongside above-normal temperatures, triggering heatwave warnings for states like Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Odisha due to a rising El Niño risk.
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New Delhi, May 29: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday issued its second-stage long-range forecast for the southwest monsoon season, projecting below-normal rainfall across several key regions of the country while warning of heatwave conditions in multiple states starting in June. Addressing a press conference, Director General of Meteorology Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the country is expected to receive 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall during the June-September monsoon season, with a model error margin of four per cent.
"We are providing the second-stage update for the June-September monsoon. Quantitatively, we expect 90 per cent of the LPA, with a 4 per cent model error," Mohapatra said. According to the regional forecast, Northeast India is expected to receive normal rainfall, ranging between 94 and 106 per cent of the LPA. However, Central India, South Peninsular India, Northwest India and the Monsoon Core Zone are likely to experience below-normal rainfall during the season. Delhi Weather Update: IMD Issues Orange Alert for Thunderstorms, Lightning and Hailstorm.
Providing the outlook for June, Mohapatra said rainfall is expected to remain below normal across most parts of the country, at less than 92 per cent of the LPA. Some areas in Northwest India, Northeast India and the southern peninsula may, however, witness normal to above-normal rainfall. The IMD also forecast above-normal temperatures for most regions during June. "Maximum temperatures will be above normal for most of the country, except for parts of Central, Northwest and East India. Minimum temperatures are also expected to remain mostly above normal," Mohapatra said.
The weather agency warned of an above-normal number of heatwave days in Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh. Parts of Maharashtra, Telangana and Tamil Nadu are also likely to witness increased heatwave activity. On oceanic conditions, Mohapatra said neutral ENSO conditions are transitioning towards El Nino, with the probability of El Nino conditions increasing to 82 per cent by June and crossing 90 per cent by July and August. Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are expected to persist throughout the monsoon season.
He further noted that rainfall in May has been four per cent above normal nationally, while cumulative seasonal rainfall up to May 27 stood one per cent above normal. Mohapatra said the southwest monsoon advanced into the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on May 16, four days ahead of the normal onset date. It has since progressed into the South Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep, with conditions remaining favourable for its arrival over Kerala and the northeastern states within the next week. El Nino Forecast: Why India Faces Rising Heatwave and Weak Monsoon Risks in 2026.
Meanwhile, the IMD on Thursday forecasted relief from severe heat across Northwest India over the next three days due to the influence of western disturbances and easterly winds, along with thunderstorms, gusty winds and hailstorm activity in several regions.
(The above story is verified and authored by ANI staff, ANI is South Asia's leading multimedia news agency with over 100 bureaus in India, South Asia and across the globe. ANI brings the latest news on Politics and Current Affairs in India & around the World, Sports, Health, Fitness, Entertainment, & News. The views appearing in the above post do not reflect the opinions of LatestLY)
