Gold, Silver Price Today: MCX Gold Falls Below INR 1.53 Lakh, Silver Crashes INR 6,000 per Kg After US-Iran Peace Deal

India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) witnessed a notable downturn in precious metal prices on Thursday, with gold futures slipping below the INR 1.53 lakh mark per 10 grams and silver recording a sharp fall of INR 6,000 per kilogram. This domestic market reaction comes as global commodity markets recalibrate in the wake of an interim peace agreement between the United States and Iran, which has swiftly dampened inflation expectations worldwide.

What Happened

On Thursday, MCX gold for August futures contracts opened lower by approximately 1% at INR 1,52,306 per 10 grams, against its previous close of INR 1,53,879, eventually declining to an intraday low of INR 1,52,301. The July futures contract for gold also saw a decline of 0.75%, trading at INR 1,50,610 per 10 grams. Similarly, silver experienced a significant slump, with MCX July futures contracts opening lower by over 1.5% at INR 2,48,000 per kg from a previous close of INR 2,51,807, and dipping to an intraday low of INR 2,48,777. This sharp decline pushed the overall silver price in India to around INR 253,170 per kilogram by early trade, reflecting heavy selling pressure. The rapid price adjustments on the domestic bourse contrast with some international spot gold reports, which showed marginal gains for the yellow metal, highlighting localised influences and investor sentiment.

Behind the Slide: Geopolitical Easing

The primary catalyst for this shift in commodity markets is the interim peace agreement signed between the United States and Iran. This landmark deal aims to end a prolonged period of conflict, facilitate the reopening of the crucial Strait of Hormuz, and potentially waive US sanctions on Tehran's oil exports. The agreement, which initiates a 60-day negotiation period, is widely perceived as a step towards resolving what has been termed one of the largest energy supply disruptions in history. Consequently, crude oil prices experienced a notable drop on Thursday, with Brent crude futures falling below US$80 per barrel, reversing earlier gains. The International Energy Agency has even cautioned about a potential significant supply glut in 2027 if the agreement is successfully implemented.

Dampened Inflation Expectations & Safe-Haven Shift

The immediate fallout of the US-Iran deal and the subsequent drop in oil prices has been a notable dampening of global inflation expectations. Gold and silver, traditionally viewed as hedges against inflation and safe-haven assets during geopolitical turmoil, often lose their lustre when these pressures ease. With the prospect of stabilising energy costs and a potentially more abundant oil supply, the urgency to hold such assets diminishes. Market analysts note that easing geopolitical tensions have triggered a decline in crude oil prices and inflation expectations, which, in turn, has reduced fears of aggressive interest rate hikes by central banks like the US Federal Reserve. Improved risk appetite has seen investors shift funds away from safe-haven assets, contributing to the selling pressure on MCX.

Analyst Perspectives and Market Outlook

Analysts are closely monitoring the unfolding situation, particularly the US Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decisions, which remain a key determinant for precious metals. Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities, highlighted that "any progress toward a formal agreement may reduce geopolitical uncertainty, while setbacks could revive demand for the precious metals". While the immediate impact of the peace deal has been a sell-off in bullion, some experts, like Vedika Narvekar, Research Analyst - Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, believe that strong central bank purchases could continue to provide a structural tailwind for gold prices, suggesting that any corrections might attract strategic buying. The market narrative has quickly shifted from geopolitics to the interplay of inflation and interest rates, implying continued volatility.

What to Watch Next

The precious metals market will closely observe several factors in the coming weeks. The successful implementation of the US-Iran interim agreement and the pace at which oil supplies normalise will be critical. Further, the US Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, especially in light of softening inflation, will heavily influence investor sentiment towards non-yielding assets like gold and silver. Domestic demand patterns in India, particularly as the wedding season approaches in various states, will also play a role, although elevated prices have already seen customers opt for lighter pieces or gold-exchange schemes. The ongoing trajectory of the US dollar and global economic growth figures will also be key indicators for bullion's performance.

While the immediate outlook for gold and silver on the MCX appears challenging due to the recent geopolitical de-escalation and its impact on inflation expectations, the long-term fundamentals remain complex. The interplay of central bank policies, evolving global trade dynamics, and persistent, albeit shifting, geopolitical risks will continue to define the appeal of these traditional assets in investor portfolios.

(The above story first appeared on LatestLY on Jun 18, 2026 09:58 AM IST. For more news and updates on politics, world, sports, entertainment and lifestyle, log on to our website latestly.com).