US Military Member Won Over USD 1 Million on Polymarket Ahead of Iran, Venezuela Actions: Report

A US military member is expected to face criminal charges after allegedly winning more than USD 1 million by betting on Polymarket ahead of looming American actions involving Iran and Venezuela, according to a report first published by The Wall Street Journal and confirmed to The Post by a source familiar with the investigation.

The identity of the service member remains unclear, as do the specific US operations on which the individual allegedly placed bets. The case could become the latest high-profile investigation into people accused of using privileged or confidential information to profit from prediction-market wagers. Army Veteran Charged with Leaking Classified Info to Journalist.

USD 1 Million Polymarket Windfall Under Investigation

According to the report, the service member made more than USD 1 million betting on Polymarket ahead of expected US actions involving Iran and Venezuela. The circumstances surrounding the wagers, including the timing and specific contracts involved, have not been publicly disclosed.

It is also unclear what criminal charges the military member may ultimately face. The reported investigation comes as federal authorities have increasingly scrutinised betting activity involving people with access to sensitive government information.

Earlier Case Involved Venezuela Betting

The latest case follows a separate Justice Department prosecution involving a US Army special forces member. In April, prosecutors charged the service member with allegedly earning USD 4,00,000 by betting on the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

In that case, prosecutors allege the defendant unlawfully used confidential government information for personal gain. The charges include unlawful use of confidential government information, wire fraud and money laundering.

Trump Teleprompter Operator Also Investigated

Another case involving political information and prediction markets emerged in July. President Donald Trump's longtime teleprompter operator was placed on leave after being caught winning USD 1,00,000 through bets on Kalshi concerning the content of presidential speeches before they were delivered.

The incident added to concerns over whether people with advance access to government or political information could use prediction markets to gain an unfair financial advantage.

Questions Over Prediction Market Betting

Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi allow users to buy and sell contracts tied to the likelihood of future events.

While the platforms cover a wide range of subjects, wagers involving government actions can raise significant legal and ethical questions when participants have access to nonpublic information.

The reported investigation into the military member is particularly notable because of the alleged connection between the betting activity and anticipated US actions abroad.

Identity And Specific Operations Remain Unclear

No public identification of the military member has been provided in the information currently available.

It is also not clear whether the alleged bets directly referenced classified information, other confidential government material or information that was otherwise available to the public.

The exact nature of the expected US actions involving Iran and Venezuela has not been disclosed.

Any potential charges would depend on the evidence gathered by investigators and the specific circumstances surrounding the wagers.

Broader Scrutiny Of Prediction Markets

The cases involving the military member, the Army special forces member and Trump's former teleprompter operator point to growing scrutiny of trading and betting by individuals who may have advance access to sensitive information.

For investigators, a key question will be whether the timing and nature of the wagers can establish that confidential information was used for personal financial gain.

Until charges are formally filed, the allegations against the newly identified military member remain under investigation. Further details about the person's identity, the bets and the alleged US operations have yet to emerge.

(The above story first appeared on LatestLY on Aug 28, 2026 10:52 PM IST. For more news and updates on politics, world, sports, entertainment and lifestyle, log on to our website latestly.com).