AIMIM vs Mahagathbandhan: Who Really Hurt Whom in Bihar Assembly Elections 2025?

Mumbai, November 15: The Election Commission, on November 14, declared results of the assembly elections in Bihar where the ruling NDA retained power. Even before the final numbers were announced, an X account named "AIMIM Bihar" alleged that Congress had caused them heavy losses by splitting votes, claiming they would have won more than 15 seats otherwise. In past, the Congress and its allies have often accused the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) of splitting Muslims votes, which they say indirectly benefits "non-secular" parties. So, who really did more damage to whom in the Bihar assembly elections? Let's understand through numbers.

The AIMIM contested 26 out of 243 assembly constituencies in Bihar. Out of these, the party won 5 seats: Amour, Jokihat, Bahadurganj, Baisi and Kochadhaman. The Congress won Kishanganj and Araria, while the RJD secured Dhaka. In the remaining 18 seats, the BJP won 6, the LJP (Ram Vilas) and JD(U) each won 5, and the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) and Rashtriya Lok Morcha each won 1 seat.

Of these 18 seats, how many could the AIMIM or the Mahagathbandhan, comprising the Congress, RJD, CPI(M-L) Liberation, Vikassheel Insaan Party, and Indian Inclusive Party, have won? In how many constituencies did their candidates split votes and hurt each other's chances?

The official results indicate that the AIMIM could have won 2 more seats (Balrampur and Thakurganj), if the Mahagathbandhan had not contested, assuming votes polled by their candidates would have shifted to AIMIM.

In Balrampur, AIMIM's Mohammad Adil Hasan lost to LJP(RV)'s Sangita Devi by 389 votes. Mehboob Alam, who was nominated by the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) (Liberation), secured 79,141 votes. Similarly, the margin between JDU's winning candidate Gopal Kumar Agarwal and AIMIM's Ghulam Hasnain was 8,822 votes in Thakurganj. RJD's Saud Alam got 60,036 votes in the election. Had a considerable chunk of Mahagathbandhan’s votes gone to AIMIM, Owaisi’s party could have won a total of 7 seats.

The official numbers also show that AIMIM, either directly or indirectly, harmed Mahagathbandhan’s prospects more than the reverse. There are 9 seats where a shift of votes from AIMIM to Mahagathbandhan could have prevented the NDA from winning in those constituencies.

• In Sherghati assembly constituency, RJD's Pramod Kumar Verma lost to LJP(RV)'s Uday Kumar Singh by a margin of 13,524 votes. Here, AIMIM nominee Shane Ali Khan secured 14,754 votes, while Jan Suraaj Party's Pawan Kishore polled 18,982 votes.
• RJD candidate Faraz Fatmi suffered defeat at the hands of BJP’s Murari Mohan Jha in the Keoti assembly seat. The winning margin was 5,126 votes, and AIMIM’s Mohammad Anisur Rahman received 7,474 votes.
• In Kasba, Congress candidate Md Irfan Alam ended up at the second position after securing 12,875 less votes than the winning LJP(RV) nominee Nitesh Kumar Singh. AIMIM's Md Shahnawaz Alam got 35,309 votes.
• In Sikandra, HAM(S) candidate Praphull Kumar Manjhi was elected by a margin of 23,907 votes, with RJD's Uday Narain Choudhary ending up at second position. AIMIM's Manoj Kumar Das (10,701) and JSP's Subhash Chandra Bosh (12,298) together got 22,999 votes. Notably, this seat was not part of the seat-sharing agreement among the Mahagathbandhan constituents. Hence, the Congress also contested and ended up getting 1,803 votes.
• RJD's candidate in Nawada, Kushal Yadav, lost the election by 27,594 votes. AIMIM's Nasima Khatoon and JSP's Anuj Singh together secured 32,184 votes. Madhubani witnessed a similar situation. RLM's Madhaw Anand defeated RJD's Sameer Kumar Mahaseth by 20,552 votes. A total of 21,424 votes were toggether received by AIMIM's Rashid Khalil and JSP's Anil Kumar Mishra.
• In the Darbhanga Rural assembly seat, RJD candidate Lalit Kumar Yadav lost the election by a margin of 18,392 votes, whereas AIMIM's Md Jalaluddin Sahil secured 17,008 votes and JSP's Shoaib Ahmed Khan got 3,814 votes.
• The Gaura Bauram seat saw BJP's Sujit Kumar winning against RJD's Afzal Ali Khan by a magin of 5,669 votes. The total votes polled by the AIMIM and the JSP were 5,749. An Independent, Shyam Sundar Choudhary, stood at third position with 6,549 votes.
• In Pranpur, BJP candidate Nisha Singh defeated RJD's Ishrat Parween by a margin of 7,752 votes. Md Aftab Alam of the AIMIM received 30,163 votes.

The numbers reveal that AIMIM’s presence, clubbed with Jan Suraaj Party's entry, not only altered the outcome for the Mahagathbandhan in 8 seats but also exposed the vulnerabilities of vote fragmentation among opposition parties.

(The above story first appeared on LatestLY on Nov 15, 2025 06:37 AM IST. For more news and updates on politics, world, sports, entertainment and lifestyle, log on to our website latestly.com).