El Nino Alert: WMO Warns of 80% Chance by August, India Faces Risk of Weak Monsoon and Extreme Heat

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a stark warning, indicating an 80% probability of El Nino developing between June and August 2026. The climate phenomenon, characterized by abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, is expected to disrupt global weather systems and intensify extreme climate events.

For India, the warning carries serious implications. El Nino is historically linked to weaker monsoon rainfall and prolonged heatwaves, raising concerns over agriculture, water availability, and overall economic stability. With ocean temperatures already at record highs, experts caution that the evolving system could become moderate to strong in intensity. El Nino To Arrive During India Monsoon, Expected To Strengthen Till September: IMD Chief.

What El Nino Means for India

El Nino typically weakens the southwest monsoon, which is crucial for India’s agriculture-dependent economy. Current forecasts suggest below-normal rainfall across most parts of the country, especially central India, increasing the likelihood of drought-like conditions.

The WMO also noted that El Nino conditions are expected to persist until at least November with over 90% certainty, further extending climate stress through the monsoon season and beyond. El Nino Forecast: Why India Faces Rising Heatwave and Weak Monsoon Risks in 2026.

Rising Global Climate Risks

The developing El Nino is expected to amplify global warming trends. UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that the phenomenon will “pour fuel on the fire” of an already warming planet, intensifying heatwaves, droughts, and extreme rainfall events worldwide.

Regions such as southern United States, parts of South America, and central Asia may see increased rainfall, while countries like India, Australia, and Indonesia could face drier conditions.

Ocean Temperatures Signal Strong Event

Scientists have observed unusually high subsurface ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific, exceeding 6°C above average in some areas. This heat buildup is a key driver behind the strengthening El Nino and signals the possibility of a significant climate event.

The last major El Nino in 2023–24 ranked among the strongest on record and contributed to unprecedented global temperatures in 2024.

Call for Preparedness and Climate Action

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo emphasized the urgent need for preparedness, warning that a strong El Nino could worsen droughts, trigger intense rainfall in some regions, and increase the frequency of heatwaves on land and in oceans.

The agency has urged countries to strengthen early warning systems, improve water management strategies, and accelerate climate action to mitigate the impact of extreme weather patterns.

(The above story first appeared on LatestLY on Jun 03, 2026 07:54 AM IST. For more news and updates on politics, world, sports, entertainment and lifestyle, log on to our website latestly.com).