El Nino Officially Declared: IMD Warns of Weaker Monsoon, Rising Heat Risk in India
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has officially confirmed the onset of El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, raising concerns about its potential impact on India’s southwest monsoon. According to the June 2026 ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) bulletin, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific have crossed the critical threshold required to declare El Nino.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has officially confirmed the onset of El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, raising concerns about its potential impact on India’s southwest monsoon. According to the June 2026 ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) bulletin, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific have crossed the critical threshold required to declare El Nino.
More significantly, atmospheric patterns have aligned with ocean warming, indicating a fully developed El Nino phase.
El Nino Likely To Strengthen During Monsoon
IMD forecasts suggest that El Nino conditions are expected to intensify as the monsoon season progresses. Model projections from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) indicate that warming will expand further across the central and eastern Pacific from July onwards. El Niño Officially Begins As US Scientists Warn of Potentially Record-Breaking Global Heat.
The Niño 3.4 index, a key climate indicator, has crossed +0.5°C, officially marking the onset. Subsurface temperature anomalies also point to sustained warming, increasing the likelihood of a moderate to strong El Nino event.
Impact On India’s Monsoon And Weather
Historically, El Nino has been associated with below-normal rainfall in India, along with higher temperatures and prolonged dry spells. It can also increase the risk of drought conditions in several regions, particularly during peak monsoon months. Godzilla El Nino Threat Looms Over India: Monsoon Disruption, Food Prices, Power Crisis and Water Shortage on the Cards.
However, IMD clarified that El Nino is not the sole driver of monsoon performance and other climatic factors remain crucial.
Neutral IOD Offers Limited Relief
Currently, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions prevail and are expected to continue through the monsoon season. A neutral IOD typically does not significantly influence rainfall patterns, meaning it is unlikely to counterbalance El Nino’s adverse effects.
Positive IOD Could Offset Impact
Japan’s Meteorological Agency (JMA), which also confirmed El Nino onset, has indicated that a positive IOD may develop around July. If this occurs, it could partially offset the negative impact of El Nino on India’s rainfall, offering some relief.
IMD To Monitor Evolving Conditions
The IMD has stated it will closely track developments in the Pacific Ocean and issue regular updates throughout the monsoon season. With forecasts pointing toward a potentially strong El Nino, weather patterns across India will remain under close watch in the coming months.
(The above story first appeared on LatestLY on Jun 12, 2026 05:59 PM IST. For more news and updates on politics, world, sports, entertainment and lifestyle, log on to our website latestly.com).
