El Nino Strengthens: How It Could Affect India’s Monsoon and Global Weather

El Niño, the climate pattern marked by unusually warm Pacific waters that disrupts weather systems worldwide, has strengthened and could intensify further in the coming months to rank among the strongest on record, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said on Thursday.

"There is an 81 per cent chance of a very strong El Niño during October-December that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950," NOAA said in its monthly bulletin issued Thursday night.

What Is El Niño

El Niño and La Niña are the two phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a naturally occurring ocean-atmosphere interaction that influences global weather patterns and can trigger extreme weather, droughts, and heatwaves. What Is El Nino and How Does It Affect Weather?

El Niño generally has a warming effect on the planet. Over the Indian region, it tends to suppress rainfall. This year, India's monsoon is expected to be well below normal, largely due to the developing El Niño.

The ENSO phase and the intensity of El Niño and La Niña events are determined by sea surface temperatures in a specific stretch of the Pacific Ocean known as the Niño 3.4 region. An El Niño is officially declared when the average sea surface temperature anomaly in this region crosses 0.50°C.

What It Means For India

With El Niño conditions strengthening, India could soon feel its impact. In its weekly update on July 9, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast slightly below-normal rainfall across the country till July 22. El Niño 2026: Can the Strongest Event on Record Weaken India’s Monsoon?

Normal rainfall is expected in Rajasthan, which does not typically receive high rainfall, along with parts of Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, and north interior Karnataka. Meteorologists say the subdued rainfall in July, which usually accounts for India's highest seasonal rainfall, could be an early sign of El Niño's impact. The IMD has forecast rainfall at below 94 per cent of the long period average this July.

For the remainder of the season, the IMD said the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the ENSO counterpart in the Indian Ocean, is likely to stay neutral. Only a positive IOD phase can offset El Niño's effects, and that now appears highly unlikely.

Current Phase Likely To Persist Till Next Spring

The current El Niño event began in June and is predicted to intensify further and continue into 2027.

In its latest bulletin, NOAA said the Niño 3.4 index had crossed 1.2°C, still within the moderate range. An El Niño is typically classified as strong once the index goes beyond 1.5°C, and very strong once it crosses 2°C. The strength of an El Niño phase also depends on how long it persists.

NOAA said the current phase is almost certain to continue through the early part of next year. "El Niño continues and will strengthen through the end of the year, with a 97 per cent chance it will last through early spring 2027," the bulletin said.

How It Compares To Past Events

The 2015-2016 El Niño remains the strongest in recent memory. Nicknamed "Godzilla," it persisted for nearly two years, from 2014 to 2016, and broke several climate records, with the Niño 3.4 index staying above 2°C for more than four months. In India, both 2014 and 2015 rank among the four driest years this century, with monsoon rainfall in both years falling well below 90 per cent of normal.

Other very strong El Niño phases occurred in 1991-92, 1997-98, and 1982-83.

(The above story first appeared on LatestLY on Jul 11, 2026 07:33 AM IST. For more news and updates on politics, world, sports, entertainment and lifestyle, log on to our website latestly.com).