India To Witness Below-Normal Rainfall in Second Half Due to Strengthening El Nino Conditions, Says IMD
The IMD predicts below-normal rainfall (under 94 per cent of the 422.8 mm LPA) for India from August to September, driven by strengthening El Niño conditions and normal-to-above-normal minimum temperatures. Quantitatively, the precipitation across the country during the August-September period is expected to stay restricted.
India is most likely to experience below-normal rainfall during the second half of the southwest monsoon season spanning from August to September, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD) monthly forecast issued on Friday, July 31. Precipitation levels nationwide are projected to fall below 94 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).
Rainfall Projections and Benchmarks by IMD
Quantitatively, the precipitation across the country during the August-September period is expected to stay restricted. The IMD highlights that the benchmark for this window is calculated using historical records. Gujarat Weather Forecast: Red Alert Issued for 13 Districts As IMD Predicts Heavy Rainfall, 50 Rescue Teams Deployed.
- Projected Levels: Less than 94 per cent of the LPA.
- LPA Metric: The Long Period Average of rainfall for the country as a whole from August to September stands at 422.8 mm, based on historical data spanning from 1971 to 2020.
IMD Predicts Below-Normal Rainfall for August-September
El Nino Scare?
In its outlook for the rainfall during the second half of the South West Monsoon Season, IMD said, "Moderate El Niño conditions currently prevail over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies remaining above normal across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. These conditions are expected to strengthen further during the Southwest Monsoon season." The weather agency also stated that the monthly average minimum temperatures during August are expected to remain normal to above normal over most parts of the country.
Understanding the Long Period Average (LPA)
The Long Period Average serves as a critical baseline used by meteorological agencies to determine whether a particular month or season's rainfall is normal, excess, or deficient. LPA refers to the average rainfall recorded over a specific region during a given period—such as a month or an entire season -calculated over a prolonged duration, typically ranging between 30 to 50 years.
(The above story first appeared on LatestLY on Jul 31, 2026 07:36 PM IST. For more news and updates on politics, world, sports, entertainment and lifestyle, log on to our website latestly.com).