Is El Niño a Threat to India’s Monsoon This Season?

The progress of the southwest monsoon has hit a significant roadblock, with national cumulative rainfall plunging to a staggering 45% deficit below the long-period average (LPA) as of late June 2026. Data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) shows that between the monsoon's delayed arrival in Kerala on June 4 and June 28, India received only 77.1 mm of rainfall against the normal benchmark of 141.4 mm. The sudden stalling of rain-bearing clouds has triggered significant agricultural concerns across the country, as the IMD maintains an overall 60% probability of a deficient monsoon season.

Meteorologists attribute this severe dry spell to a rare combination of adverse atmospheric conditions, chief among them being a strengthening El Niño over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. In addition to oceanic warming, a misplaced northern wind current known as the westerly jet stream has acted like a "heat dome," trapping moisture close to the ground and suppressing cloud formation before it can mature. Compounding the crisis, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a local climate driver that has historically softened the blow of El Niño by supplying moisture, remains locked in a neutral phase, offering no climatic cushion to offset the deficit. India’s Monsoon Rainfall Deficit Narrows to 43%, but El Niño Threat Keeps Drought Concerns Alive.

Will El Nino Derail India’s Monsoon This Year?

The central and western parts of the country are bearing the brunt of the stalled weather systems. Central India, which serves as the country’s critical rain-fed agricultural core zone, has recorded a rainfall deficit exceeding 57%.

State-wise breakdowns present a highly critical picture for major agricultural producers. Gujarat is currently experiencing an 84% rainfall deficit, followed closely by Meghalaya at 82%, Manipur at 71%, and Chhattisgarh at 68%. Major agrarian states such as Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, and Bihar are also facing steep shortfalls of 59%, 56%, and 50% respectively, bringing early summer crop operations to a virtual standstill in non-irrigated regions. India Monsoon Delay: Late Rains Trigger Water Shortages In Cities, Hit Farming and Disrupt Construction.

The prolonged pause in rainfall is directly threatening key summer (kharif) crops that rely extensively on June and July moisture. While heavily irrigated crops like sugarcane, wheat, and certain rice varieties maintain moderate safety buffers, less water-intensive but critical rain-fed crops are highly exposed.

According to agriculture ministry assessments, only 10% of the country's soybean cultivation area is irrigated. Similarly, irrigation covers a mere 14% of tur pulses, 19% of bajra, and 24% of jowar. Economic analysts warn that if the projected 10% overall seasonal deficit materializes, it could contract agricultural gross value added (GVA) by roughly 1% and add up to 300 basis points to domestic food inflation in the current fiscal year.

Despite the sluggish start, water management and global market dynamics have prevented early panic among economists. Unlike past severe El Niño cycles, such as those in FY15 and FY16 when food buffers were thin, India currently maintains relatively stable food stocks and global crude oil prices have remained supportive below $75 per barrel.

However, meteorologists emphasize that the ultimate game-changer will be the performance of the monsoon in July, a window during which nearly 80% of India's total kharif sowing is historically completed. While current satellite imagery indicates a dry atmosphere over the mainland, weather models are closely tracking a large tropical system building in the eastern Indian Ocean that could potentially revive the monsoon mechanism in the coming weeks.

(The above story first appeared on LatestLY on Jun 28, 2026 03:29 PM IST. For more news and updates on politics, world, sports, entertainment and lifestyle, log on to our website latestly.com).