Southwest Monsoon Likely To Arrive in Kerala Around May 26, Says IMD
The IMD has forecast the southwest monsoon to arrive early in Kerala around May 26, roughly a week ahead of schedule. While the state prepares for its crucial four-month rainy season, an active cyclonic circulation has already triggered heavy pre-monsoon showers, prompting orange and yellow alerts across multiple districts.
- Read in
- हिंदी
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced that the southwest monsoon is projected to make an early onset over Kerala on May 26. The estimated arrival date carries a standard statistical model margin of error of plus or minus four days. This early progression sits nearly a week ahead of the traditional June 1 mainland baseline. Ahead of the formal onset, the state is preparing for five days of severe weather, with heavy downpours already lashing multiple districts.
Atmospheric Systems Triggering Pre-Monsoon Showers
Met officials attributed the current heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty winds to an active cyclonic circulation situated over south coastal Andhra Pradesh and its adjacent areas. This weather setup has facilitated the formation of a low-pressure area spanning Kerala, south interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema, and the southeast Arabian Sea near South Lakshadweep. Heatwave in Delhi: IMD Issues Yellow Alert for Severe Heat Wave in Delhi-NCR for Next 3 Days.
The IMD confirmed that the southwest monsoon has advanced successfully into most segments of the southeast Arabian Sea, along with parts of the Kanyakumari region. The primary system has also made headway across key maritime sectors:
- Bay of Bengal: Advanced through major areas of the southwest, southeast, and east-central regions.
- Andaman Sea: Progressed across the majority of the water body.
- Andaman and Nicobar Islands: Crossed entirely over the island chain.
Regional Rain Alerts and Classification
As intense rain bands moved through Kerala, the weather agency declared an "orange alert" for two northern districts - Kannur and Kasaragod. Concurrently, a "yellow alert" was sounded for 10 other districts for Monday, May 18, leaving only Thrissur and Palakkad outside the heavy rainfall warning matrix. The meteorological department maintained an active yellow warning for nine districts. For Tuesday, May 19, the weather agency has issued a "yellow alert" for nine districts. The IMD utilises colour-coded advisories to communicate quantitative severity risks to regional administrative bodies:
- Orange Alert: Warns of very heavy rain accumulations ranging from 11 cm to 20 cm within a 24-hour cycle.
- Yellow Alert: Indicates a localised heavy rain window measuring between 6 cm and 11 cm.
Background and Economic Significance
The southwest monsoon serves as the primary driver of India's agricultural economy, accounting for over 70 per cent of the nation's annual rainfall. The formal onset over the coast of Kerala marks the start of a critical four-month rainy season necessary for replenishing domestic reservoirs and irrigating summer-sown kharif crops. Heatwave Alert: IMD Issues Warning for Severe Heatwave Across Northwest and Central India as Temperatures May Hit 45 Degrees Celsius.
If the current timeline holds, this will mark the third consecutive year that the monsoon has arrived ahead of its normal calendar schedule on the Indian mainland, following early arrivals during the preceding seasonal cycles.
(The above story first appeared on LatestLY on May 19, 2026 02:13 PM IST. For more news and updates on politics, world, sports, entertainment and lifestyle, log on to our website latestly.com).
