El Nino To Arrive During India Monsoon, Expected To Strengthen Till September: IMD Chief

India could witness its weakest monsoon rainfall in three years as El Nino is now confirmed to develop during the 2026 monsoon season, according to India Meteorological Department (IMD) Director General Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra.

In an exclusive interaction with India Today Group, Dr Mohapatra said El Nino is expected to emerge in June and gradually strengthen through the monsoon months, potentially impacting rainfall distribution across the country.

The update comes shortly after the IMD retained its forecast of below-average rainfall for the upcoming monsoon season, raising concerns about agriculture, water availability and heatwave conditions. El Nino Forecast: Why India Faces Rising Heatwave and Weak Monsoon Risks in 2026.

When Will El Nino Affect India?

According to Dr Mohapatra, El Nino is likely to begin in a weak phase during June 2026. The weather phenomenon is expected to gain moderate strength by July and August before reaching full intensity in September.

El Nino refers to the periodic warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The phenomenon can alter global weather patterns and has historically been linked to weaker monsoon rainfall, prolonged dry spells and higher temperatures across India. El Nino 2026: These States and Cities in India Face Highest Risk As Historic El Nino Prepares To Hit.

Global Agencies Also Flag El Nino Risk

Several international weather agencies have also indicated that El Nino conditions are developing. Australia's Bureau of Meteorology has projected the possible emergence of El Nino during June, while China's National Climate Centre has reported warming Pacific Ocean conditions consistent with the phenomenon.

Adding to the concerns, satellite observations analysed by NASA have identified a large pool of warm water building beneath the Pacific Ocean surface. Scientists consider such subsurface warming a key indicator of an approaching El Nino event.

What El Nino Could Mean for India

Meteorologists warn that El Nino can reduce monsoon rainfall and increase the likelihood of heatwaves across several parts of India. Lower rainfall levels can place additional pressure on agriculture, reservoirs and water resources, particularly during the critical monsoon season.

With multiple global forecasting agencies now pointing to the arrival of El Nino, weather experts will closely monitor its development and potential impact on India's monsoon performance in the coming months.

(The above story first appeared on LatestLY on May 29, 2026 10:42 PM IST. For more news and updates on politics, world, sports, entertainment and lifestyle, log on to our website latestly.com).