El Nino 2026: These States and Cities in India Face Highest Risk As Historic El Nino Prepares To Hit

India is bracing for a potentially devastating monsoon season as the Indian Meteorological Department's (IMD) first long-range forecast for 2026 warns of below-normal rainfall driven by a historic El Nino event forming rapidly in the Pacific Ocean, one that climate scientists are comparing to the catastrophic super El Nino years of 1997 and 2015.

What Is the El Nino Forecast for India in 2026?

IMD has forecast monsoon rainfall this year at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA), placing it firmly in the "below normal" category. The LPA, calculated on data from 1971 to 2020, stands at approximately 870 mm over the June-September season.

More alarmingly, the probability of a deficient season, where rainfall falls below 90% of LPA, stands at 35%, more than double the historical probability of 16%. El Nino Meaning, Causes and Effects: How the Phenomenon Will Affect Temperature Extremities in India and Globally.

"The equatorial Pacific is fast warming up, leading to the development of an El Nino event by June or July," said Dr Madhavan Nair, climate scientist. "This event could be a very severe El Nino like we had in 1997 and 2015."

Which States and Cities in India Face the Highest Risk?

India's northern, western, and central regions face the gravest threat:

• Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan are highly vulnerable during August and September
• Madhya Pradesh including Indore, Ujjain, Gwalior, Chambal, Jabalpur, Rewa, Shahdol, Sagar, and Narmadapuram are all expected to receive below-normal rain
• Central and western India core monsoon regions are at risk of inadequate rainfall
• Delhi-NCR already reeling from extreme heat, with drier and hotter conditions expected to persist

Regions likely to be spared significant deficits include Ladakh, parts of Rajasthan, the Northeast, and northern south peninsula including Telangana.

Meanwhile, Chennai and coastal Andhra Pradesh face the opposite problem, with heavy rainfall that could trigger devastating floods similar to the catastrophic 2015 Chennai floods. As Super 'El Nino' Looms, Wildfires Are Set to Heat Up.

When Will El Nino Hit Hardest?

Both IMD and Skymet suggest June may remain relatively stable. The real damage is expected in August and September, when El Nino's impact will be fully felt across the subcontinent.

A Familiar Story: Lessons From 2015 and 2023

India has been here before. During the 2015-16 super El Nino, actual monsoon rainfall dropped to 86% of LPA, triggering widespread drought. Maharashtra's Marathwada region alone recorded a 40% rainfall deficit, devastating crops and deepening farmer distress.

In the El Nino year of 2023, India recorded a 36% rainfall deficit in August alone, with districts like Satara, Nashik, Raigad, West Nimar, Balangir, and Korba among the worst affected.

Nearly two-thirds of India's cultivated land is entirely dependent on rainfall, and around 60% of Indian farmers rely on monsoon rains for the kharif crop season, making the stakes for 2026 exceptionally high.

Is There Any Silver Lining?

Not all forecasts are grim. Climate models indicate that positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions, a warming of the western Indian Ocean that generally supports good rainfall, are likely to develop toward the end of the monsoon season, potentially offsetting some of El Nino's impact.

IMD is expected to release an updated forecast in the last week of May that will provide greater clarity on the scale and intensity of this year's El Nino cycle.

(The above story first appeared on LatestLY on May 15, 2026 06:05 PM IST. For more news and updates on politics, world, sports, entertainment and lifestyle, log on to our website latestly.com).