Business News | Rupee May Stay Under Pressure as Geopolitical Risks and Twin Deficits Keep USD-INR on Upward Trajectory, Experts Say
Get latest articles and stories on Business at LatestLY. The Indian rupee breached the Rs 96 mark against the US dollar for the first time ever on Friday, hitting an intraday low of 96.14 before settling at 95.97, as geopolitical tensions and a widening trade deficit intensified pressure on the currency.
New Delhi [India], May 15 (ANI): The Indian rupee breached the Rs 96 mark against the US dollar for the first time ever on Friday, hitting an intraday low of 96.14 before settling at 95.97, as geopolitical tensions and a widening trade deficit intensified pressure on the currency.
The sharp depreciation was triggered by a sudden short squeeze after the rupee crossed the 96 level, compounded by a stronger dollar and rising crude oil prices. The dollar index and global crude benchmarks extended gains after the U.S. rejected Iran's 14-point peace proposal, with Washington reiterating its hardline stance on nuclear issues. "Since the onset of these tensions, the dollar and crude oil have moved in lockstep," said Dilip Parmar, Senior Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
The fall has amplified concerns over India's import bill and inflation outlook. "The ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and energy-driven macro pressures continued to fuel strong dollar demand globally, pushing the rupee beyond the Rs 96 mark," said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money. He added that the currency weakness has raised investor anxiety over "India's rising import bill, worsening inflation trajectory, and potential slowdown in economic growth at a time when the macroeconomic environment is already under severe strain."
The rupee's decline coincides with a larger-than-expected widening of India's trade deficit and tepid capital inflows. Technically, spot USDINR now faces support at 95.45, while resistance is seen at 96.20 and 96.85, Parmar noted.
However, Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal struck a measured tone, highlighting a silver lining for exporters. "Our exports, even in this difficult external environment, have been doing well. Rupee depreciation means our exporters need to export more to get the same amount of dollars. So, our growth in rupee terms is much higher in exports, and that's also a positive sign for us," he said.
Agrawal said the Department of Commerce is engaging with industry stakeholders daily to address supply chain and logistics bottlenecks. "The interim minister group in the DGFT meets all stakeholders, trying to resolve issues that exporters may face in supply chain, logistics, internal logistics, port logistics, in order to ensure that the export supply chain does not stop," he said.
He also pointed to the rollout of the Export Promotion Mission, which he said is gaining traction among industry participants. "We see there is good amount of traction in industry for many of these components, and they are looking at the Export Promotion Mission for implicit support to meet the requirements in their ways to increase their exports."
With twin deficits widening and capital flows remaining subdued, analysts believe the path of least resistance for USDINR remains upward unless geopolitical tensions ease or capital inflows improve. (ANI)
(The above story is verified and authored by ANI staff, ANI is South Asia's leading multimedia news agency with over 100 bureaus in India, South Asia and across the globe. ANI brings the latest news on Politics and Current Affairs in India & around the World, Sports, Health, Fitness, Entertainment, & News. The views appearing in the above post do not reflect the opinions of LatestLY)