Oil Supply Crisis: Which Countries Will Run Out First if the Gulf War Halts Crude Exports? Should India Be Worried?

Mumbai, March 10: Escalating tensions between Iran, the United States, and Israel have pushed the global energy market into a state of high alert. Following a series of drone attacks and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz on March 2, global oil prices briefly surged past USD 120 per barrel - the highest level since 2022. While prices retreated toward USD 90 on Tuesday, March 10, following signals of a potential de-escalation, the disruption of this critical chokepoint has raised an urgent question: If Gulf crude stops reaching the world, which nations will run out first?

Asian Countries Dependence on Gulf Oil

The Persian Gulf remains the world’s most vital energy hub, with Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait meeting a massive portion of global demand. Much of this supply must pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Asian economies are uniquely vulnerable to this disruption, as many lack significant domestic production and rely on the Gulf for transportation, heavy industry, and power generation. While Iran has stated the blockade currently targets only vessels linked to the US, Israel, and Western allies, major insurers have already cancelled "war risk" cover, making the route commercially unviable for most. Pakistan Hikes Petrol and Diesel Prices by PKR 55 Per Litre in Steepest Increase Ever Amid West Asia Conflict.

Nations at Immediate Risk Due to Oil Supply Crisis

Countries with low strategic reserves and high import dependency are the most susceptible to a total supply halt.

• Pakistan: Experts estimate Pakistan’s current oil reserves can sustain the country for only 20 to 28 days. The government has already begun implementing austerity measures to conserve fuel.
• Indonesia and Vietnam: Indonesia currently holds approximately 20 days of reserves, while Vietnam is estimated at 15 days. Both nations are highly susceptible to immediate fuel shortages.
• Thailand and the Philippines: These Southeast Asian nations have slightly more breathing room, with reserves estimated to last around 60 days.

India's Strategic Buffer to Manage Oil Supply Crisis

As the world's third-largest oil consumer, India imports over 85 per cent of its crude requirements. However, the Indian government has taken steps to mitigate its vulnerability. According to a March 9 report to the Rajya Sabha, India currently holds a total of 74 days of reserves. This includes 9.5 days in Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) caverns and roughly 64.5 days held by Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs). While this provides a substantial buffer, it remains below the 90-day benchmark recommended by the International Energy Agency (IEA). India Has 74-Day Strategic and Commercial Crude Oil Reserves To Counter Supply Disruptions: Parliament.

Japan and US Among Global Leaders in Energy Security

Several major economies have spent decades building massive "energy fortresses" to withstand exactly this type of geopolitical shock:

• Japan: Despite importing 95 per cent of its oil from the Middle East, Japan maintains one of the world’s largest emergency stocks, capable of lasting approximately 254 to 260 days.
• South Korea: Even with seven tankers currently stranded by the blockade, South Korea’s reserves are estimated at 208 to 210 days.
• United States: Now the world’s top oil producer, the US also maintains strategic reserves that could last between 161 and 200 days.
• China: As the world's largest importer, China has been allowed continued passage for its vessels. Its current reserves are estimated to last between 90 and 104 days.

If the blockade persists for more than four weeks, analysts warn the crisis will evolve from a fuel shortage into a manufacturing disaster, potentially leading to a global shortage of semiconductors and fertilisers. For now, the world remains focused on diplomatic efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz before the "first-to-fall" nations reach their breaking point. Countries such as Pakistan, Indonesia, and Vietnam could face oil shortages if the Gulf war halts crude exports. On the other hand, India could last a little longer due to the oil crisis but Japan, South Korea, China and the United States will be able to sustain themselves for months.

(The above story first appeared on LatestLY on Mar 10, 2026 07:49 PM IST. For more news and updates on politics, world, sports, entertainment and lifestyle, log on to our website latestly.com).