Mumbai, Jan 12 (PTI) Projecting a pick up in thedomestic job market, stock brokerage UBS Securities India hasraised concerns on quality of such employment and has flaggedrisk from a global shift towards automation.According to the report, job creation could push upGDP growth towards 7.5 per cent and Nifty earnings growth at12-15 per cent over the next five years."Consensus estimates of a near-term earnings recoveryand implied long-term growth incorporate a sharp pickup in jobcreation," UBS said in a report."However, we believe the quality of jobs couldunderwhelm, and there are downside risks, includingfrom the global automation 'utopia' scenario, over thelong-term," it added noting that the markets have not factoredin these risks.The brokerage has estimated creation of 4 million jobsannually over the next five years, up from an estimated 2million per annum over the past five years.The report has identified four broad areas that canhelp drive job creation. They include traditional/localservices like banking, retail, logistics and IT;housing/construction; textile/apparel manufacturing andpublic/social services.As per UBS about 13 million people will enter India'sworking-age population annually over the next five to sixyears. Considering the labour participation rate, about 7million of these people will actually be looking for a job.Noting that a large global shift towards automationcould serve as a significant negative for the job market. Itwould be inherently less labour-intensive, and UBS said thiscould be a "grey-sky scenario for India" in terms of GDP andearnings growth, and could also lead to major social issues."This impact is likely to be beyond the next fiveyears and government policy response (more protectionism and a‘Universal Basic Income’) will matter," UBS added.It also expects growth in the number of households to be stable in the lower-middle income bracket but decelerate in the middle-middle bracket, reflecting a "worsening job quality mix, with slowing growth in IT services jobs but accelerating growth in construction and apparel jobs".

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