New Delhi, August 2: With Monsoon gripping all parts of the nation at present, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released its forecast for the month of August and September, predicting normal rainfall over the next 60 days. As per the forecast, August will witness 99 per cent of the long period average (LPA) rains, with an error margin of plus or minus 9 per cent.
September, which is the final month of Monsoon, is predicted to receive 100 per cent of the average rainfall. The LPA of the rainfall over the country as a whole for the second half of the monsoon season (August to September) based on the 1961-2010 period is 42.83 cm. Kolkata Sees Driest July in 10 Years With Less Rains, While Mumbai Records Wettest Month in 112 Years
"The probabilistic forecast suggests that the rainfall across the country during second half of Southwest Monsoon season is most likely to be normal (94-106 per cent of LPA) with a probability of 45 per cent," the IMD said.
Mritunjay Mohapatra, Director General of IMD, said the next two weeks are expected to bring good rainfall due to formation of a low pressure area in the north Bay of Bengal.
The official rainfall season in India starts from June to September. The overall rainfall deficiency in the country until July 31 was minus 9 per cent. The deficiency on June 30 was 33 per cent.
The coming two months are expected to be good as El Nino has entered a neutral phase and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also positive.
"Currently, the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) as well as the atmospheric conditions over equatorial Pacific Ocean indicate El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral to borderline El Nino conditions," according to the forecast.
"In addition to ENSO conditions over the Pacific Ocean, other factors such as the Indian Ocean SSTs (sea surface temperatures) have also some influence on Indian monsoon. Currently, positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over equatorial Indian Ocean," it said.
El Nino is associated with heating of the Pacific waters while a positive IOD is linked to cooling of the Indian Ocean waters. Both are believed to impact the monsoon.