New Delhi, June 1: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday issued long-range forecast update for 2020 Southwest Monsoon rainfall. According to the IMD, Rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2020 southwest monsoon season (June to September) is most likely to be normal. The country is likely to witness 96 percent to 104 percent rainfall of long-period average (LPA). 'Nisarga Cyclone Will Impact Mumbai', Warns IMD as Low Pressure Area Over Arabian Sea Intensifies Into Depression.
The IMD predicted that monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 102 percent of the LPA with a model error of ±4 percent. As per the long-range forecast update, the North-West region of the country will receive 107 percent of LPA 103 percent of LPA over Central India, 102 percent of LPA over South Peninsula and 96 percent of LPA over North-East India, all with a model error of ± 8 percent.
Meanwhile, the monthly rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 103 percent of its LPA during July and 97% of LPA during August, both with a model error of ± 9 percent, predicts state-run weather forecasting agency. Currently, ENSO Neutral conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific and Neutral IOD conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. Nisarga Cyclone Tracker: Cyclonic Storm to Turn Into Severe Cyclonic Storm by June 3; Check Forecast and Day-Wise Movement.
The operational forecasts have been prepared based on the state-of-the-art, indigenously developed statistical models. The updated forecast for the southwest monsoon season (June-September) rainfall over the country as a whole was prepared using a 6-parameter Statistical Ensemble Forecasting System (SEFS).
The southwest monsoon has already made an onset over Kerala on Monday, marking the commencement of the four-month-long rainfall season, the IMD said. The four-month monsoon season from June to September accounts for 75 percent of rainfall in the country.
(The above story first appeared on LatestLY on Jun 01, 2020 04:01 PM IST. For more news and updates on politics, world, sports, entertainment and lifestyle, log on to our website latestly.com).