Mumbai, September 26: NASA scientists are preparing for a potential lunar threat from Asteroid 2024 YR4, a 60-meter-wide "city killer" space rock that could strike the Moon in 2032. While the asteroid poses little danger to Earth, a Moon impact could send debris toward satellites and the International Space Station. To counter this, experts have proposed using a nuclear bomb to destroy the asteroid. The plan represents a bold escalation in planetary defence strategies, combining lessons from past missions like DART with nuclear disruption.

As per a study by NASA, deflecting Asteroid 2024 YR4 using conventional methods could be risky due to uncertainties about its mass, which is estimated to range from 72.7 million to 2 billion pounds. A failed deflection attempt might inadvertently redirect the asteroid toward Earth, making traditional strategies like the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) less feasible. The limited time available before a potential lunar impact further complicates mission planning, leaving scientists to explore more aggressive approaches. Asteroid 2024 YR4 To Strike Earth in 2032? Possibility of 'City Killer' Asteroid Hitting Earth Rises From 2.3% to 3.1%, Says NASA, Experts Say No Need for Alarm.

The NASA team, led by Brent Barbee of the Goddard Space Flight Centre, has proposed a “kinetic disruption mission” to destroy the asteroid using nuclear explosive devices. The plan involves sending two 100-kiloton self-navigating nukes, each five to eight times more powerful than the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, with a backup device onboard. The launch window for this nuclear mission is projected between late 2029 and late 2031, allowing sufficient time for interception while minimising risk. Asteroid 2024 YR4 Threatens Moon: Building-Sized Space Rock Could Hit Moon in 2032; Possible Collision May Trigger Destructive Meteor Shower on Earth, Satellite Chaos.

As per the study, the team also plans to gather crucial data during the asteroid’s close Earth-Moon flyby in 2028 using missions like Psyche or OSIRIS-APEX. This reconnaissance will help refine the asteroid’s trajectory and mass estimates, which are critical for ensuring the success of the nuclear disruption mission. While the chance of an Earth impact remains extremely low at 0.00081 per cent, the four per cent probability of a lunar collision and its potential consequences have prompted scientists to consider nuclear intervention as a necessary precaution.

Is it Possible 2024 YR4 Could Impact the Moon?

Accoding to NASA, Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a very small chance of impacting the Moon on Dec. 22, 2032. If the asteroid were to impact the Moon, it would not alter its orbit.

Is It Possible to Deflect Asteroid 2024 YR4? Could We Use a Spacecraft Similar to DART?

A kinetic impactor spacecraft like NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission is one asteroid deflection technique that could be used to address a potentially hazardous asteroid in the future. Each asteroid is unique, and deflection would depend on the asteroid’s size, physical properties, orbit, and discovery warning time. 2024 YR4 poses no significant impact risk to the planet, and thus it is premature to speculate on potential deflection techniques for this asteroid.

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